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September log market preliminary

Forest owners are bracing for a fall in export log prices in September driven by continued weak market conditions in China.

 

Inventory levels in China have fallen to around 3.7 mill m3 – the lowest level in 6 months. Daily offtake has been around 55k m3/day which gives about 70 days of stock – better than what is has been but still not a position that puts any upwards price tension into the supply and demand equation. If we continue to see 100-150k m3/week falls in inventory on China ports we will get improvement in prices – hopefully as early as October. The US$CFR price has fallen US$10/m3 over the last 4 weeks – in China, Korea and India. The reduced volumes we are now sending to the markets will be giving some support to our current pricing levels now. More comprehensive market coverage will be provided in the Wood Matters September Log Market Report.